Towards an Environmental DSS based on Spatio-Temporal Markov Chain Approximation

The aim of this paper is to provide a mathematical model for assessing the influence of forest fragmentation on the dynamics of animal biodiversity in a changing landscape. The model is based on a stochastic, spatially explicit population dynamics model which takes both temporal and spatial dynamics of biological processes into account. Unfortunately, this model is not tractable, so we will use a Monte Carlo simulation method in order to approximate the multidimensional random variables involved. The main strength of our approach is its ability to model generic biological and socio-economic dynamic processes, which are both explicitly spatial and stochastic. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of our biodiversity dynamics modeling tool we use available spatial data on the presence/absence of Erithacus Rubecula (robin) at different time points in the “Vallée de la Nère”, an area of fragmented forest located in the southwest of France, near Toulouse.